July 2, 2009
By Paul Sloth Racine Journal Times
With the budget finished and the ink from Gov. Jim Doyle’s pen dry, state party leaders on both sides of the aisle say they’re planning their next moves leading up to the 2010 election.
Republican Party leaders hope to capitalize on dissatisfaction over the budget written and passed by Democrats who hold slim majorities in both houses of the Legislature. They’re eyeing key seats around the state, including a seat in Racine County, where they think they can win in 2010.
Summer, experts say, is the time party leaders start looking for candidates to run for seats that might be in play.
Joe Heim, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, said 2010 could be a Republican year, following two straight elections where Democrats gained control of both houses of the Legislature.
The issue Republicans might win with in the next election? The 2009-11 budget Doyle just signed into law.
“There is a reason why every Republican voted against it. It wasn’t just partisanship. I think they felt that this was the kind of budget they could run against,” Heim said. “There is a lot for the average voter not to like in this budget.”
Republicans need to take two seats to regain control of the Senate, which the party lost control of in 2006. Democrats hold an 18-15 majority.
With at least one state representative, Leah Vukmir in Wauwatosa, announcing her plan to challenge Sen. Jim Sullivan, the Republican Party of Wisconsin has started looking for other seats to target. One of those seats is the 21st Senate seat currently held by John Lehman, a Racine Democrat.
“I think we’re going to have a very good race in that Senate district and we have a good shot at winning it,” said Mark Jefferson, executive director of the state Republican party. “We have a lot of good opportunities on offense taking Democratic seats than we do on defense.”
The seat is one of four that Democrats targeted in 2006, when Lehman beat Racine County Executive William McReynolds for the open seat. All four seats will be back in play in 2010, Jefferson said. The seat, once held by George Petak, is a volatile one, Jefferson said. Petak was the first Wisconsin lawmaker to be removed from office in a recall election.
Rep. Robin Vos, R-Caledonia, who might be considered a possible choice to run against Lehman, said he has no plans to run for Senate.
While he wasn’t ready to name any potential candidates, Jefferson said he also expected Republicans to recruit someone to challenge Rep. Cory Mason, D-Racine. Mason beat Racine County Board Supervisor Van Wanggaard in 2006 to claim the seat Lehman vacated to run for Senate.
“The sands have shifted so hard and so fast in the past several months. If the Democrats don’t shift direction, they will have a very tough time,” Jefferson said. “We’re going to have to work doubly hard, but when you have public opinion on your side you can accomplish a lot of things.”
Bill Kraus, a veteran Republican strategist in Wisconsin, said the Republican Party’s problems are “deeper than the superficial discontent about the Doyle budget.” While the budget had its faults, according to Kraus, he doesn’t know if it’s a strong enough issue for Republicans to run on in 2010.
“I think they’ll make runs at people, but I don’t think they have a persuasive case,” said Kraus, a long-time political campaigner. “If they’re going to do something they’ve got to have something to say.”
Democrats are also starting to think about areas where they will focus their attention in the next election.
While the 21st Senate seat has been a volatile one, and one Republicans are eyeing, no party has been in a better position to retain the seat than Democrats are with Lehman, said Jason Stephany, executive director of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.
Stephany, a Racine native, doesn’t believe voters will look at the budget as a reason to vote Democrats out of office.
“I think that the budget package that we put through, it certainly has its challenges, but it does protect Wisconsin’s priorities,” Stephany said. “I feel confident that our Democratic incumbents have a record that they can defend, especially in the face of a Republican Party that sat on the sidelines and did nothing,”
Heim doesn’t necessarily agree. Could the budget come back to haunt Democrats?
“It’s very possible. Unless the economy doesn’t turn around, this is a difficult budget to run on,” Heim said